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Preparing for another Carrington Event and for similar threats to the North American Grid


Without doubt, a major geomagnetic storm will again hit Earth. It is not a matter of if, but when.

The consequences of another Carrington event could be globally catastropic because of the advanced digitization of global society, the deep electrification of our society and length and complexity of our supply chains.

Canada needs to fund and annually review the degree of national preparedness for the threats to the North American Grid.

"This solar cycle started in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025. " Source

What is a Blacksky event? It is a long-duration power outage Source

Blackstart restoration requires the electric and natural gas entities to work collaboratively across multiple jurisdictions and functional responsibilities, including but not limited to, transmission operators, generator operators, distribution providers, reliability coordinators, and natural gas producers, processors, and transporters

"On 20 December, 2023, at a meeting of the National Space Council, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) released the new Space Weather Implementation Plan which identifies actions to implement the 2019 National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan over the next five years. Upon its release, Stephen Welby, Deputy Director, National Security, OSTP, stated "We are committed to improving national preparedness for space weather and that commitment remains constant, and is in fact more relevant and important than ever." Source

    

Carrington Event and Emerging Threats Overview

  What is a Carrington Event?
  
  Solar Storms of 2023 - X-Class storms
  
  You Tube:Practical Engineering) A summary of how other systems of infrastructure (like roadways, water, sewer, and telecommunications) depend on electricity and how long each system could last under total blackout conditions (A Black Sky Event)
  
  You Tube: Practical Engineering: What Is A Black Start Of The Power Grid? It's not Easy.
  
  Report: Blackstart and Next-Start Resource Availability in the Texas Interconnection
  
  US National Weather Service - Space Weather
  
  US NOAA - Space Weather Prediction Center
  
  The forecast consensus: a peak in July, 2025
  
  U.S. President: Executive Order -- Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events (October 13, 2016)
  
  U.S. National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan(link is external)(April 05, 2019)
  
  U.S. National Space Weather Strategy (October 29, 2015)
  
  U.S. National Space Weather Action Plan (October 29, 2015)
  
  US DOE: Solving a Plasma Physics Mystery: Magnetic Reconnection (October 3, 2018)
  
  Scientific American: New Studies Warn of Cataclysmic Solar Superstorms (September 24, 2019)
  
  The Economist: "Solar physicists put the odds of a Carrington-level geomagnetic storm some time in the next ten years at around one in ten. Eventually one will come."(June 25, 2020)
  
  National Post: Canada's space agency is studying whether a big solar storm could send us back to the Stone Age (September 12, 2017)
  
  Science Daily: Carrington Event - near miss 2012
  
  Space Weather
  
  Space Weather Canada
  
  Space Weather Canada on Twitter @SpaceWeatherCA
  
  Forbes: EMP Study: Threat To U.S. Grid Is Manageable, Electric Sector Says It Would Be Ready (May 3, 2019)
  
  Business Insider: North America solar storm risk map
  
  OECD: Future Global Shocks: Geomagnetic Storms
  
  USGS: Mapping a Space-Weather Menace to Electric-Power Grids (September 12, 2016)
  
  Lloyds Report: Solar Storm Risk to the North American Power Grid
  
  Scientific American: U.S. Sharpens Surveillance of Crippling Solar Storms (September 20, 2016)
  
  Tech Talk by transformer producer ABB: Effect of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on power transformers and power systems
  
  YT: Short USGS presentation on the Hazards of Geomagnetic Storms
  
  YT: Solar storms - The unpredictable danger (August 21, 2020)
  
  Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008)
  
  Pacific Northwest National Laboratory: Geomagnetic Storms and LongTerm Impacts on Power Systems - & specifically the western U.S.-Canada power grid (December 2011)
  
  National Geographic Special on EMP weapon which is hyped but is a stand in for a solar geomagnetic storm (January 2015)
  
  COBRA: Could power on Earth really be wiped out by a solar storm? (Short answer yes) (January 18, 2020)
  

Wikipedia on Carrington Events, Solar Cycles and Solar Maximum

  Wiki: Solar storm of 1859 - The "Carrington Storm" How Carrington Events got their name
  
  Wiki: Northeast Blackout - August 14 - 15, 2003
  
  Wiki: Solar maximum - cycles
  

What is the North American Electrical Reliability Corporation and why is it largely unprepared for a Carrington Event?

  2019 Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) Reliability Risk Priorities Report November 2019
  
  North American Electrical Corporation - EOP-010-1 Geomagnetic Disturbance Operations
  
  North American Electrical Reliability Corporation
  

What is being done to mitigate the impact of the next Carrington Event?

  US Report: Implementation Plan of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (December 2023)(More Bla Bla Bla)
  
  The President and CEO of the North American Reliability Corporation (NERC), Jim Robb discusses the role NERC plays in ensuring reliability of the North American electricity system - mentions black sky & black start, cyber
  

What is being done to understand and predict Carrington Events and their impacts?

  (New Yorker: What a Major Solar Storm Could Do to Our Planet (February 26, 2024)
  
  NASA Parker Solar Probe - Active Mission
  
  Canadian Space Agency - Solar-terrestrial science Initiatives
  
  Geospace Observatory (GO) Canada: Monitoring and predicting space weather
  
  Solar storm from 1977 reveals how unprepared we are for the next 'big one (December 4, 2023)
  
  NASA data helps new model predict big solar flares (July 31, 2020)
  

Current North American Power Outages

  Poweroutage.US
  
  Poweroutage Canada
  

Solar Science News and Developments

  The physics of solar flares could help scientists predict imminent outbursts. Large outbursts of radiation from the sun can damage infrastructure on Earth (July 30, 2020)
  
  Geomagnetic Storms and Geomagnetically Induced Currents (July/August 2016)
  
  Physics: The probabilities of electricity blackouts may be influenced by the sizes of cities more than by the details of power grids. (July 31, 2020)
  
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