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Canada's Fighter Aircraft Decision


Canada is about to make a fighter procurement decision vital to it's long term security and the security of the western alliance. I have concluded that the F-35 is the best option. The November 22, 2016 decision to purchase a squadron of Superhornets is a stopgap move designed to fill an immediate gap in capability while it fleshes out its broader geopolitical strategy and military plans.

The Canadian fighter decision turns on whether we are arming to operate in uncontested airspace as in Afghanistan, air superiority over lesser rivals or - more critically - top of the line rivals in highly contested airspace. The F-35 is a stealth multi-role fighters which means that it can operate in all three environments - and most critically is an effective deterent in potential highly contested airspace. The primary problem for the western democracies is the latter - in the defence of Europe or defence of Pacific allies The F-35 is really the only option both now and into the future when the Super Hornet will no longer be effective in a high threat environment.

The F-18 Super Hornet for a number of reasons - including its size (big radar reflection) - will not be deployable in future highly contested environments. It has no development path to the future. The F-35 is designed to allow it to overcome advanced surface to air missile technlogy - through its stealth. The F-35 is also uniquely equipped with synthetic aperture radar integration techniques, advanced processing power and advanced target recognition capabilities. The F-35 has a longer term development path with associated systems.

Critics of the F-35 suggest that the failure of the sole engine on the F-35 means loss of the aircraft and in the Canadian high arctic or in our frigid northern waters pilots might be at risk. The F-35's comparatively shorter loiter capacity means support of CDN ground forces might be reduced. Another criticism is the high operating hour cost of the F-35 vis a vis alternatives in low intensity conflicts that seem destined to wear on for decades. While the F-35 can perform multiple roles in different environments it is optimized as a strike fighter in highly contested airspace. An airspace denial strategy with advanced missiles like the S 400 make contested airspace very complex even for the F-35.

A revolution in military affairs is occurring with respect to the application of advanced AI to aircraft and missile technologies that call into question hitherto seemingly effective strategies and platforms of the past.

Canada will need to look to other options for low intensity theatres and for coastal defences regardless of the fighter decision. The days of piloted aircraft are numbered. What cannot be determined as yet is whether it will be a "hard" or a "soft" transition.

More here on the implications of drones and robotic systems to the evolution of the space, air,land & sea environments and the F-35's role as human in the loop.

    
  NP: I was a U.S. 'Hornet Admiral'—and I'm worried about Canada's air force capability (October 5, 2017)
  
  Washington Post: In low intensity, long duration conflicts, light attack aircraft may make a comeback. (Cost per hour numbers by fighter alternatives) (February 28, 2017)
  
  Bloomberg: Lockheed’s F-35 Stealth Fighter Is Here to Stay (February 22, 2017)
  
  Canada has a defence capability gap - a wider qualitative and quantitative capability gap in the late 2020s: (February 17, 2017)
  
  F-35 Scores Impressive 15:1 Kill Ratio (This it is why it's called a fifth generation fighter) (February 7, 2017)
  
  If you don't want to deter the Russians in Europe by all means don't acquire the F-35 (January 3, 2017)
  
  Air force warned readiness of fighter fleet was declining back in 2014 (December 3, 2016)
  
  CBC: Extending CF-18s past 2025 called a 'high-risk solution, from both a technical and operational perspective' (December 1, 2016)
  
  Israel's security cabinet decided unanimously to purchase an additional 17 F-35s, bringing the number of the advanced jets in the IAF to 50.(November 29, 2016)
  
  Liberals Changed Air Force's Fighter Jet Requirement: Commander (November 28, 2016)
  
  The F-35B Just Got A Lot Deadlier (November 23, 2016)
  
  Canada will immediately explore the acquisition of 18 new Super Hornet aircraft to supplement the CF-18s until the permanent replacement arrives. (November 22, 2016)
  
  War in the Information Age (November 16, 2016)
  
  Expansion in Networked Warfare with F-35 MADL SM-6 test - Quality has a Quantity All Its Own. Third offset strategy (September 13, 2016)
  
  War on the Rocks: America is on track to lose air supremacy in contingencies involving near-peer air combat (September, 2016)
  
   Air Superiority 2030 Enterprise Capability Collaboration Team (September, 2016)
  
  How the F-35’s Brains Will Change Air Warfare (August 16, 2016)
  
  The F-35 and its Cognitive EW - artificial intelligence (August 4, 2016)
  
  Lockheed Martin Corp's F-35 fighter engine by Pratt and Whitney (July 8, 2016)
  
  Google Pratt and Whitney F35 engine
  
  F-35 fighter jet makes UK flight debut (July 8, 2016)
  
  Genetic Fuzzy based Artificial Intelligence for Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle Control in Simulated Air Combat Missions (March 2016)
  
  US Strategic Capabilities Office - lifts one veil: F-35 as AI control center for unmanned networked maneuverable fighters (March 10, 2016)
  
  F-35 pilot explains how he dominated dogfights against multiple A-4 aggressors. Every time.(July 11, 2016)
  
  Drone Swarm Will Fly Alongside F-35 Fighter Jet: Air Force Scientist (July 7, 2016)
  
  DARPA's Vertical Take Off And Landing Combat Drone Could Revolutionize Naval Combat - data relay with F-35 (December 29, 2015)
  
  Electronic Warfare in the context of the F-35 (January 21, 2016)
  
  Liberals planning to buy Super Hornet fighter jets before making final decision on F-35s, sources say (June 05, 2016)
  
  Great exchange between US Senator McCann and US airforce Chief General Mark Welsh - airground support - F-35?
  
  Suitability for Arctic defence, lower cost may put F-35s on Liberals’ radar (March 11, 2016)
  
  F-35 May Not Be Suitable for Combat Before 2022 (March 14, 2016)
  
  Long-winged Predator UAV takes flight (February 17, 2016)
  
  Australia buys 24 F/A-18F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growler Aircraft and awaits F-35's 72 Joint Strike Fighters (May 2015)
  
  Boeing, sensing an opening, meets with government on fighter jets (February 17, 2016)
  
  Unmanned carrier-based aerial refueling tanker - to extend range of F-35 (February 12, 2016)
  
  US DOD tests on the F-35
  
  China struggles with fighter engine technology(January 14, 2016)
  
  A-10 retirement indefinitely delayed(January 14, 2016)
  
  Congress offers Christmas cheer to F-35 and F/A-18 programmes (December 2015)
  
  Implications of US budget extension of F-18 - Advanced Super Hornet
  
  Do you want to bomb things, or shoot things down? In the absence of an renewed CDN Military strategy - the issue of what to buy is moot
  
  Budget realities: McCain says Pentagon may need to trim F-35 purchases | The Star-Telegram
  
  US Congressional Hearing - The Future Warfare - Senator McCain introductory comments
  
  Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee - CDR Jeff Eggers on “Improving the PENTAGON’S Development of Policy, Strategy and Plans” December 8, 2015
  
  STATEMENT BEFORE THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE ON. DEFENSE REFORM by Jim Thomas. November 10, 2015
  
  The Eisenhower School for National Security and Resources: Robots and Autonomous Systems 2015
  
  YT: Boeing F 18 Super Hornet VS Lockheed Martin F 35 Lightning II - Why choosing one or the other?
  
  YT:F-35 Decision Making - 5th Estate - Decision History
  
  U.S. Government Accounting Office (GAO) drops the hammer on F-35 runaway costs
  
  Top US Senator: Canada 'Stupid' To Drop F-35
  
  Canada's F-35 Decision Poised To Shake Up Fighter Jet Market
  
  Stealthy F-15 Silent Eagle May Get A Reprieve As Israel Requests More Eagles
  
  Boeing: F-15 Strike Eagle
  
  Boeing F-15 Eagle Next Generation Air Superiority Aerial Combat Tactical Fighter Full Documentary
  
  Canada: CF-18 Replacement Project
  
  Context: The Current Canada Defence Projects
  
  Fighter Jets in the Canadian Air Force - [Chronological History] (RCAF - CAF)
  
  The Avro Canada CF-105 Arrow Definitive Documentary
  
  2012 Spring Report of the Auditor General of Canada - Chapter 2—Replacing Canada’s Fighter Jets (A CF if there ever was one)
  
  A little history of the British being pressured
  
  NATO’s new Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) unmanned aerial vehicle Program
  
  Best Fighter for Canada Blogspot
  
  Low budget approach to innovation
  
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